Posted on March 20, 2009
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by Grandpa, ByeByeBigBrother.com
Personally we think the dangers of terrorist attacks are a lot of hype. All the security and government intelligence experts we know agree with us.
Unless you choose to live in a terrorist-prone zone, you are much more at risk from traffic accidents or even lightning strikes. This author once lived in Belfast during the ‘troubles.’ IRA bomb detonations were an everyday occurrence. After a while nobody thought twice about it. It was just a minor inconvenience. The odds in favour of survival there were pretty good. If you stayed out of the bars and meeting halls where youth gangs and other combatants were known to congregate, you were pretty safe.
That said, we thought we should include some ‘Be Prepared’ advice. Protecting your ass is definitely an essential part of the PT (Perpetual Tourist) lifestyle originally espoused by the late W.G. Hill. Here is some expert advice contributed by John Harper, a Security Consultant with the global consulting firm Geodex.
KEEP AWAY FROM TARGET AREAS
Don’t live or work in an obvious high priority target area or war zone. Where should you go? Resort towns (think ski or beach), would be unlikely targets. That is outside of Israel of course. The threat of robbery or kidnapping in many cities of Colombia is rather high, but the resort town of Cartagena is considered quite safe for tourists. For single PTs, it also happens to be full of available, beautiful ladies. And it’s cheap too.
Avoid living in prominent cities. Washington DC and London might be risky. Rural areas, with low population density, are not targets. Nobody would notice or care if a terrorist blew up a bomb in the middle of Iowa or rural Spain. Most of the neutral countries of the world are not likely to be targets. If there is a choice, don’t live in the Gaza Strip or in an apartment building next door to your local dictator’s palace.
It really is that simple. Stay away from target areas. It is not difficult to figure out target areas.
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION?
Forget everything you’ve ever seen on TV, in the movies or read in novels about this stuff – it was all a lie! Terrorist weapons are about terror. If you remain calm, you will probably not be killed or injured. Your prospects are far less scary than the media and breathless journalistic ‘experts’ make it sound.
A chemical weapons attack that kills a lot of people is incredibly hard – even for a well equipped military unit – to pull off. For terrorists, a crude bomb in a crowded place is much cheaper and more effective than gas, anthrax or typhoid spores.
To avoid bombs, stay off of crowded public transport in cities with globally unpopular governments. Avoid the higher floors of high-rise buildings, and don’t hang about crowded public places.
Nerve agents? You have these in your house. Raid insect spray is nerve gas. Spray it into your mouth, inhale deeply and you are a goner. Antidote for all nerve agents is atropine and pralidoxime chloride. Atropine comes as a gel in a little mini toothpaste size tube with needle attached. It can be self-administered as a shot in the thigh or the butt muscles. Neither one of these antidotes does anything to cure the nerve agent. They send your body into overdrive to keep you alive for five minutes. After that the agent is used up. You survive and are not permanently injured.
WHAT TO DO IF YOU ARE INVOLVED IN AN ATTACK
If you smell new mown hay, green corn, something fruity, camphor or anything odd where it shouldn’t be, then calmly leave the area and head up wind. Or go outside! Fresh air is the best ‘right now antidote.’ Don’t panic – if you panic you breathe faster and inhale more air/poison.
If you get a blob of liquid on you that looks like molasses or Kayo syrup, blot it or scrape it off – away from yourself. Use a tissue, newspaper or anything disposable. It is similar stuff to what a crop duster uses to kill bugs and it won’t hurt you unless you stand there and breathe it in deeply. All you have to do is quit getting it on you or into your lungs. Put space between you and the attack.
Once again, go out into the fresh air. Hold a thick cloth, tissues or even the sleeve on your arm over your mouth and nose. Breath as little as possible till you get outside. Move slowly and deliberately. Above all, don’t panic.
Chemical weapons are intended to make people panic, to terrorize, to herd the enemy like sheep. Your odds are better if you leave the area. Soap, water, time and fresh air really deal all this stuff a knock-out-punch. Poison gas in the First World War was a horrific weapon only in the first attacks because weather conditions in Normandy were so perfect. Large numbers of men were concentrated in low lying trenches. If they came out they could be picked off by snipers. Foggy mist laced with mustard gas settled into the trenches. There was no fresh air and there was no wind. Many died. Once the troops were equipped with gas masks and could breath air filtered by activated charcoal, the gas was no longer a formidable weapon. If you want to be on the paranoid side, buy yourself a gas mask.
Nuclear bombs: If you see a flash, fall to the ground and stay there two minutes to avoid the coming blast. If you are not dead in the first two minutes, you will survive.
DON’T BE RULED BY FEAR
Don’t let fear of an attack rule your life. The odds are really on your side. Even if you live in Tel Aviv, New York City or Washington DC, you are far more likely to be laid low by the flu or a drunk driver than to be injured or killed in a terrorist attack.
Our advice? Don’t waste any time agonizing about terrorist attacks. Just get on with life. Your chances of being hurt are far less than the odds of your winning ten million in a lottery.
Posted on February 14, 2009
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Guest post by Grandpa, Editor-in-Chief at ByeByeBigBrother.com
Maybe you can’t stand endlessly locking everything. A PT takes sensible precautions and tries to have a minimum in visible valuable possessions that might be coveted by others.
The degree of care you exercise should be logically related to the value [to you] involved. If you don’t own anything portable and valuable or anything that you don’t mind losing, then you just don’t have anything to worry about. That would be the ideal state of things for a PT (no Priceless Things!) However, most of us will still want to maintain some homes and possessions.
YOUR HOME IS YOUR CASTLE
Every residence should be penetration proof. Only residents should be able to come and go at will. This means there must be a security system and security procedures which will vary with single or multi-unit dwellings.
The consequences of having the wrong person know your residential address can be deadly. Just ask Rebecca Schaefer, or rather, her heirs. When Schaefer, a California actress, answered the door to her home several years ago, she found one of her ‘fans’ pointing a gun at her. She died from the gunshot wounds he inflicted.
Her assailant had merely walked into the California Department of Motor Vehicles, looked up her residential address and, with that information paid, her a fatal visit. Rule number one: never give your true address (where you sleep at night) to anyone, least of all the government!
While US law – recently upheld by the Supreme Court – now requires state motor vehicles departments to limit disclosure of vehicle registration and driver’s license records, these records are just one of the many databases now available on the Internet. Such records may contain your home address and even so-called ‘unlisted’ telephone numbers.
Moral of the story: keep the place you sleep of all records – public or private.
BURGLARY PREVENTION
One idea suggested in an earlier PT book is to have a laminated, screwed on plaque notice of ‘Poison Gas Protection’ with a skull and crossbones prominently displayed Some people have such notices on their front doors and accessible windows. Same for apartment building basement storage rooms – especially if you keep any good wine in storage areas open to strangers.
Seems like a good idea. A friend of ours got the same effect by posting a notice as follows: “DANGER! Poisonous Reptile Pets Guard This House. Visitors: Entering property after reading notice absolves owner of any legal responsibility for injury. Be Careful to Keep All Doors and Windows Closed to Prevent Escape of Deadly Snakes.”
[If you were a burglar would you force open a door with this notice? Or would you go on to the next one?]
DOGS
Besides that, noisy, barking dogs are proven to be very effective deterrents. A medium-to-large sized dog with a deep voice is excellent. Pets, however, don’t really fit the PT lifestyle in other ways of course. They are anything but portable.
SAFES
It’s a good idea for every PT to install a safe in any property he or she visits regularly. This will be very useful not just for securing valuables, but also for securing confidential papers from the prying eyes of domestic help or people who use the property while you are away. If well concealed, it can even protect sensitive papers and valuables from raids by Big Brother.
We don’t recommend keeping sensitive documents in your regular, well known home, of course. But a little safe-house that is not linked to you, perhaps rented in the name of a foreign girlfriend, can be an ideal storage place – and the safe will prevent the girlfriend or her family from prying!
Probably the most practical safe is a relatively small built-in wall safe, just large enough to hold A4 or 8 1/2 x 11 paper together with a few watches, pieces of jewellery etc.
Most robbers who break into ordinary houses are opportunists. Few will have the skills or equipment with them for safe-cracking. That said, it is still advisable to conceal any safe as far as possible.
Simply hanging a picture or poster over it is better than nothing. But as this ploy is well known, we recommend that you do something a bit more imaginative. If people are unaware of the existence of a safe, they rarely bother to look behind closet wall coverings or under wall-to-wall carpets. The least expected places are the best places for hiding things or safes. For example, I have seen safes in bathrooms, cunningly disguised as electrical mains plugs or part of the plumbing. Under the bathtub could be a good place. If you have a garage, storage room or basement workshop, why not anchor your safe in a wall niche or concrete floor outside of the living area? You could conceal it with a sheet of linoleum or a loose covering of leaves or broken pot shards. Use your creativity.
What should you not do? Don’t hide your valuables under the mattress or pillows. Don’t keep stuff in your bed-table, bedroom closet or under the bed. That’s the first place burglars look. Good temporary storage for cash might be well wrapped in a plastic container marked ‘Boiled Mackerel’ in your freezer.
AVOID HABITS AND ROUTINES
This is one of the most important aspects of personal security, both at home and whilst travelling. Studies of rapists, muggers, assassins, robbers and kidnappers prove the incredible dangers posed by merely living and moving about in a predictable way.
Use common sense. A wealthy celebrity or business executive in Colombia or Russia will need to take extreme precautions. If you live in crime-free Monaco you can let your guard down – a bit.
Alter your routine. Avoid predictability of movement. Do grocery shopping sometimes on Wednesday if the usual day is Saturday. Vary your lunch times and eating places. Don’t visit the bank, post office, etc., every day at exactly the same time.
When leaving home base, notify a trusted person of your destination. Make a second phone call to verify your safe arrival.
Arrange code words to alert your wife or a friend of trouble by phone. Adopt silent emergency signals. The cash room of a major department store has the following code system. The supervisor regularly greets incoming employees with a cheery “Hello.” The response must be a bright, “Hello to you, Mr. Powers.” If the response is anything else, the supervisor knows he should take immediate emergency measures.
Police say victims of crimes are often accomplices in their own demise. Private security consultants caution customers that imprudent or showy conduct is the catalyst in random criminal activity.
YOUR SAFETY CHECKLIST
Your safety checklist should include a check of cosmetic features. Do you consistently overdress for surroundings? Do you wear inappropriate or unnecessary jewelry? These are signposts to criminals seeking a target. Avoid flashing inordinate amounts of cash or wallets filled with offshore credit cards. Carry only cash you need and don’t flash a roll of bills. Use the credit card you need and keep the others safely concealed. A minimum conscious effort provides great personal security by denying criminals information.
CONVERSATIONS
Personal or cell phone conversations should be conducted in a quiet voice (or at a distance from others) so they are unintelligible to eavesdroppers nearby. Maintain a moderate appearance and keep your general demeanor conservative. Don’t negate your privacy with loose conversation.
Professional criminals can make out like bandits by capitalizing on information from overheard conversations.
Posted on January 28, 2009
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By Marin Katusa
Chief Strategist, Casey Research Energy Team
Casey Energy Opportunities
One might think the United States would be charging hard on energy security as well as border and other kinds of security in its Global War on Terror campaign. Not so. For example, America imports some 12 million barrels of oil per day, yet maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) whose maximum is 727 million barrels (and its inventory is currently lower, 701 million barrels, because the government cut off shipments to it last year in an effort to modulate gasoline prices.) The math gets even more discouraging when you work in the fact that the SPR’s daily drawdown capacity is only 4.4 million barrels – so America is completely unprepared for any worst-case scenarios, or even the bad-case ones.
It’s not that the United States doesn’t have the capacity for domestic energy production. Administration after administration, Republican as well as Democratic, is simply choosing to legislate it away. Designate the land above one of the biggest, cleanest coal deposits in the world a national monument, rope off huge swaths of offshore waters to drilling, threaten stringent new mining laws, derail hydroelectric projects, and America is handing foreign suppliers its own barrel for the country to crawl under.
Speaking of administrations… how about the new one? Will President Obama’s promised green policies make a difference? As we laid out in the November 2008 edition of Casey Energy Opportunities, the short answer is no. In fact, we believe that if Obama pushes through the goals as he’s outlined, the United States is actually headed for a more, not less, dangerous path. Green energy isn’t enough to offset the pressure he plans for the “dirty” energies. A bull market will come for the traditional energies in the long run; the problem lies in the shorter term, in the instability of America’s energy portfolio before the Obama administration realizes that nice girls don’t wear that much paint.
With this in mind, let’s look at each power generation technology from an investor’s view.
Coal. However you slice it, the coal industry is in for a hard time under Obama. He proposes a tough 100% cap-and-trade system that will make coal plants uneconomical to run at almost any electricity or coal price around now. This goes for existing as well as new plants, and installing the latest-generation scrubbers will just be another route into the red for many companies. Did we mention that coal generates almost half of America’s electricity?
As a result, we expect coal prices and coal utilities to trade well below their worth for the next few years. We’re closing our position on a coal ETF in our portfolio, which we recommended in February 2007 and took a free ride on in June. But as time goes on, America will realize how overambitious Obama’s targets are and come back to the tried and true. With the help of the coal industry’s powerful coal lobby in Washington – not to mention all the voters the coal industry employs – coal will catch fire once more, and we’ll reevaluate our position then.
Natural Gas. While a thermal-generation technology like coal, natural gas is less likely to feel pain under Obama because of its cleaner burning. And as natural gas is already one of the cheapest power technologies available, the industry would weather a cap-and-trade system better than coal. Natural gas is set to push to the forefront of the electric world.
So far, so good. The next factor changes things a bit for the savvy investor, however. Without Russia’s heavy hand on the tap to deal with, prices should shadow market patterns in United States. Due to the country’s large natural gas reserves and resources in both gas shale and coal bed methane, we predict natural gas prices will drop in the near term. Thus we’re avoiding all but the best U.S. natural gas plays in the Casey Energy Opportunities portfolio.
Nuclear. Obama’s stance on nuclear energy is decidedly neutral. He appears to recognize its benefits for domestic energy security as well as its carbon-reducing qualities. He’s also aware it’s still a touchy subject for many Americans, even with the Yucca Mountain waste disposal site moving forward. We add this up to mean that nuclear reactors currently in planning stages are likely to go ahead unimpeded by federal or state meddling. This is good news for our uranium picks.
There’s another bullish influence coming for uranium: the sunset of America’s current Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) agreement with Russia in 2013. At best, Moscow will demand to renegotiate the bargain-basement price it’s now obligated to offer under terms of the agreement. More realistically, it will threaten to shop its converted weapons-grade uranium elsewhere – another barrel over the land of the free – and Russia actually has several incentives to do so. Sooner or later, the United States will return to sources within its own borders, then from Canada.
Wind. Wind energy has much to gain from Obama’s plan, which, as it stands, has some $15 billion slotted for clean energy initiatives. His target of “25% by 2025” would require roughly double or even triple growth for the wind industry. Obviously this growth is achievable only through government subsidies, which may or may not be sustainable. Only a few areas of the United States, such as around the Great Lakes and offshore in territorial waters, enjoy the steady stiff breeze that wind farms require to be viable.
Offshore projects raise another hurdle: transmission lines. For fun, let’s run some numbers for President Obama. For wind power to supply 20% of America’s power by 2030, the country would need to build an estimated 12,000 miles of 765 kV transmission lines. At a cost to generate power of US$0.06 – about the same as geothermal – the transmission lines would cost $2.6 million per mile (in today’s money), or $31 billion total. That figure would account for 21% of the total budget for clean energy alternatives, or to put it another way, two years’ funding for NASA.
A company with projects bearing very good wind reserves near an existing transmission line is the only kind of investment we’d consider here. For now, however… like T. Boone Pickens, who recently announced he’s putting his giant Texas wind-farm project on hold because of the credit crunch and falling energy prices – we, too, are steering clear of wind energy.
Solar. Sun-powered electricity is a great long-term energy provider. Despite advances in the technology, however, it continues to be one of the highest-cost producers; and there will always be the issue of what to do when the sun doesn’t shine (and not just on cloudy days – there’s every night). And while the Mojave Desert isn’t as remote as China’s Gobi, the incoming administration still needs to consider cost of infrastructure when promoting solar farms. That said, we still believe that our investment in two hand-picked solar stocks will return good profits in the next few years.
Geothermal. Many projects generating electricity from hot water would run into trouble if oil were to go below $50 per barrel. True still, but geothermal continues to appeal nonetheless. First, oil is unlikely to stay this low for long; and more fundamentally, geothermal’s load factor – as high as 95% — pushes it far to the head of the renewables class and comparable to natural gas and nuclear.
Its limitation is geographical. At the very best, only 10% of the United States could be supplied with geothermal power, according to the Department of Energy, and we find that figure optimistic. Geothermal currently represents 0.35% of America’s power generation.
We’re willing to invest in geothermal companies because of the robust economics and the fact that they’re likely to do well under the cap-and-trade system that appears inevitable. We want to pick those that have not only good resources but also customers, so two top-quality geothermal companies are currently in the Casey Energy Opportunities portfolio.
Hydroelectricity. On the scale of energy generation technologies, hydroelectricity tends to rate as reliable, and generally cheap and environmentally benign. Like Europe, however, the United States has little hydroelectricity left to exploit, and even the newer run-of-river technology is unlikely to bump its contribution up much from hydropower’s current 10%.
Biofuels. Unlike the Casey Research Energy Team, Obama is fond of this stuff. Biofuels are both heavily subsidized and currently high-cost alternatives to reducing carbon – second generation (from non-food organic material) and third generation (using algae) included. However, the White House is soon to hold a former senator from Illinois, one of the largest ethanol producers in the United States, so biofuels are likely to hang around in some form or another. We’ll keep our eye on research, as well as industry developments in the near future.
***
As Casey Research Managing Director David Galland likes to say, “There has never been an economy so heavily politicized as the current one.” Therefore, anticipating how a market sector will be faring is not enough anymore… you also need to be able to foresee what Washington and/or the Fed is going to do to influence that industry.
To that end, Casey Research offers you a brand-new FREE special report, Obama’s Newer Deal, a short but comprehensive guide on the policies and stances you can expect from the new administration… and how it affects you as an investor. Plus, test Casey Energy Opportunities risk-free with this special offer… clicking here.
Posted on October 15, 2008
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In a recent interview with the UK’s Daily Telegraph, Dr Joel Brenner, the US National Counterintelligence Executive, warned that hundreds of chip and pin machines in stores and supermarkets across Europe have been tampered with to allow details of shoppers’ credit card accounts to be relayed to overseas fraudsters.
Criminal gangs have allegedly doctored chip and PIN machines either during manufacturing in China or shortly after leaving the production line, in order to collect shopper credit card account details then transmit it overseas. The devices were then expertly resealed and exported to Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium.
The counterintelligence chief is quoted as saying: “Previously only a nation state’s intelligence service would have been capable of pulling off this type of operation. It’s scary.”
Hundreds of devices have been copying credit and debit card details over the past nine months and sending the data by way of mobile phone networks to hackers in Lahore, Pakistan, The Telegraph report alleges. MasterCard first uncovered the plot at the start of the year after detecting suspicious charges to British and other European accounts.
The scam is believed to have resulted in the loss of tens of millions of pounds by criminals creating cloned cards, making phone or internet transactions, or withdrawing cash from the account. Thieves typically wait at least two months before using the stolen data in order to make it harder for investigators to determine what happened, says the report.
According to one commentator on the site, who apparently worked for the government of a certain OECD nation, security services had also discovered that Chinese made mobile phones could be switched on remotely and used as eavesdropping devices in meetings etc. “To hear that EFTPOS equipment is also hacked surprises me not one iota,” he writes.
Posted on October 14, 2008
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You may think soy formula is a safe alternative to breast milk. But here are eight reasons to think again.
1. Caustic Chemicals: Soy protein isolate is the primary ingredient in soy formulas. And – unless it’s organic – it’s treated with hexane, a caustic chemical.
2. Exposure to Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs): Almost all soy is genetically modified. But even if you choose organic soy-based formulas (like Earth’s Best), reasons 3 through 8 below are still health concerns.
3. Proper Growth & Development: Because of soy’s high phytate content, the use of soy-based formulas has been known to cause a zinc deficiency in infants. In addition to zinc’s involvement in more than 100 enzymes in the body, it is essential for normal growth and development.
4. Thyroid Function: Soy contains goitrogens – chemicals that have been found to impair thyroid function. The thyroid, a part of the endocrine system, affects weight, metabolism, mood, and the functioning of other endocrine organs.
5. Exposure to Heavy Metals: The aluminum content of soy formula is 10 times greater than milk-based formula and 100 times greater than unprocessed milk. Aluminum’s potential toxic effects range from kidney failure in infants to Alzheimer’s in adults.
6. Brain Function: Soy formulas lack cholesterol – a key ingredient in producing myelin, the fatty sheath that surrounds nerve fibers. Myelin acts as insulation, making it possible for nerves to carry information from one part of the brain or body to another.
7. Lower IQ: Soy formulas lack lactose, which is broken down by the body into two simpler sugars – glucose and galactose. Galactose is a valuable nutrient for brain tissue development. Anthropologists have demonstrated that the more intelligent species of mammals have greater amounts of lactose in their milk, and human milk has one of the highest concentrations of lactose of any mammal milk. Soy-based formulas contain no lactose at all, only table sugar and corn syrup.
8. Estrogen Exposure: It is estimated that infants fed exclusively soy-based formula receive an estrogen dose equivalent to five birth control pills daily.
When it comes to giving your little one the highest quality nutrition, there’s no doubt that the breast is best. But if you’re unable to breastfeed, choose a high-quality organic milk-based formula (like Bright Beginnings) that contains DHA and ARA.
This article appears courtesy of Early To Rise, an e-zine dedicated to making money, improving your health and quality of life. For a complimentary subscription, visit http://www.earlytorise.com.
Posted on October 12, 2008
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A recent report from HSBC Bank, quoted on Q Wealth Report and Lowtax.net, ranks the fourteen best countries in which to raise a family, based on a survey of more than two thousand expatriates living in 48 countries. Spain and France came out on top.
Expat parents were asked to rate their host country in five areas:
* Time their children spent outdoors
* Time their children spent studying
* Cost of raising children
* Number of languages spoken by their children
* Whether their children would remain in the country
Interesting reading for anyone considering a move overseas with children….
Posted on October 1, 2008
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Geopolitical Analysis – a summary of an article we recently prepared about the threat from Russia
The Great Russian Bear Market
By Rob Montes and Peter Macfarlane
Quite often here at The Q Wealth Report we focus on Big Brother in his guise as Uncle Sam. It’s not that we are anti-American – quite the opposite in fact. We love the spirit and wording of the American constitution, and the freedom of choice and expression that America stands for – in theory. That’s why we are saddened that the practical experience on the ground stateside today is rather different from the theory, and why we frequently choose to publish articles critical of the US government in the hope that this trend may be reversed.
However, we must not wear blinkers, and today we are seriously concerned about another Big Brother state which has a worrying and fast-expanding influence on the world stage. The Russian Bear, feared since the times of the Tsars, is again rearing its head. Today it’s not just the Russian nouveaux riches invading flashy European resorts, but we see well-trained Russian troops carrying out meticulously executed attacks on the territory of other sovereign countries.
As I write, the first serious war on European territory since the break-up of Yugoslavia is taking place. I’m hopeful that the killing won’t continue for long, and that a solution to this conflict between Georgia and Russia will have been found before you read this.
The conflict over South Ossetia has been “on ice” since the break-up of the Soviet Union. In the meantime the world forgot about it. Most likely, the world will soon forget about this brief revival of hostilities. But there is a more serious underlying threat here, which is the strength of Russia, and the emergence of a new, more subtle form of cold war. This will affect us all, particularly as global businesspeople and investors. Those of us who don’t learn from the past are doomed to repeat it, as the saying goes.
Just a couple of weeks before the surprise outbreak of hostilities in South Ossetia, I and Peter Macfarlane wrote a piece for the Q Wealth Report blog, based on a report in Time magazine about increasing Russian influence in the Caribbean. President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela was present in Moscow to sign a billion dollar arms contract. Simultaneously, Russia announced that it was considering using its old ally Cuba as a base for refuelling war planes in America’s back yard, sparking a feisty reaction from Fidel Castro who stated in effect that he didn’t have to confirm, deny or justify anything. All this in turn came surprisingly close after the announcement of a US missile defence system to be built in what Russia considers its back yard, the Czech Republic. Meanwhile in Asia, July saw the signature of a milestone border demarcation agreement between Russia and China, no doubt seeking to build up influence in the orient as a counterbalance to NATO.
A recent article in the Financial Times (August 13th, 2008) opines that in attacking Georgia, the Kremlin has laid down a new challenge to the west. Analyst Charles Clover writes that by attacking an American ally and prospective NATO member and getting away with it, “Russia suddenly belongs to the elite group of countries that can write their own rules.” He continues that “Few doubt that Georgia is the first in a series of moves to re-establish Moscow’s control over the former Soviet Union.”
Since the turn of the century, Russia has undergone a startling transformation which many in the west have failed to notice. While Europeans have been closer to the action, many across the pond have been so focused on the terrorist threat that Russia has risen unchallenged. The pro-western liberalism of the 1990s, when Russia was beholden to the west, is long gone – the new theme of the Russian government is “patriotism.” The army has also been turned around and is now in much better form than a decade ago. Clover calls the Georgian campaign a “textbook example of modern warfare”, apparently copied from the US campaign in Kosovo.
Russia now has the third-largest reserve of foreign currencies in the world, and a huge trade surplus. The source of all this wealth, of course, is oil and gas – and to a lesser extent minerals. We also see the spectacle of thinly-disguised attempted government takeovers of foreign investments in this area.
Worryingly, Western Europe replies on Russia for more than a quarter of western Europe’s gas, without which many Europeans would be unable to cook and heat their homes in winter. Russia has a history of mysteriously reducing supplies due to “technical difficulties” or of fiddling with prices at short notice.
From an investment point of view, Russia is becoming an increasingly risky market. But we believe that commodity prices will remain high and this will give Russia the financial status it needs to expand its “patriotic” aims. Russia has substantial leverage to manipulate hydrocarbon prices, and even the gold price. There may be opportunities here, but there are also substantial risks. You can be better prepared for both by gaining a deeper understanding of the underlying geopolitical situation. Those investing or living in Eastern Europe or the Baltic boom states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania might want to consider getting a “Last Plane Account.”
We’ll be continuing to monitor the situation and will be adding more news on the blog, accessible at www.QWealthReport.com
Posted on September 29, 2008
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A recent article published by The Register reports on a survey showing that Brits approached in the street in London were more than happy to hand over the data used to for their online passwords in return for a £5 Marks and Spencer Gift Voucher. Good thing, says The Register, stolen identities are worth a lot less than £5, fetching as little as 50p on the underground black market, according to Symantec.
Brits, on the other hand, expect better data security when it comes to companies. Despite this, three in four of those surveyed said they were more likely to shop online now then they were six months ago, mainly because it’s easier to find bargains on the net. “Consumers are first and foremost concerned about price – and not necessarily for their safety,” Symantec notes. So much for living off the grid!
The British government was reckoned to be the worst offender for data loss by half of those surveyed.